V5 Roadmap
V5 is now the live structural release. The retained V4.3 baseline, sidecars, and promotion-comparison artifacts remain published for auditability while the next work shifts to V5.x calibration.
V5 is no longer the live model. This page is preserved as the archived roadmap for the V5 research program that fed into the later V6 release.
The V5 comparison trail is preserved.
The roadmap no longer stops at sidecars. A combined experimental model remains available with structural validation 2/2 and realized-risk validation 3/4.
Open V5 model note →Current live
V5
the live version when this roadmap was authored
Retained V4.3 baseline
2/3
shadow validation gates that cleared
Task-native coverage
485
occupations carried into the retained pre-V6 baseline
Status
promoted live
next major scientific release
Published Sidecars
Augmentation heterogeneity
pilot sidecarWorkflow-sensitive augmentation priors published separately from the live score.
Download v5-augmentation-heterogeneity.jsonEmpirical mobility transitions
enriched sidecarHybrid mobility sidecar blending observed priors, destination quality, wage preservation, and training ease.
Download v5-empirical-mobility.jsonPosterior uncertainty
pilot sidecarSource-calibrated latent measurement sidecar built on persisted exposure-source percentiles.
Download v5-posterior-uncertainty.jsonRealized-risk forecast
pilot sidecarConservative realized-risk proxy published alongside structural and near-term risk.
Download v5-realized-risk.jsonIntegrated Candidate
V5 Model Note
The integrated V5 model is no longer live. This note preserves the final promotion comparison against the retained V4.3 baseline and the published V5 adjunct layers for auditability under V6.
Status
promoted live
Structural validation
2/2
Realized validation
3/4
Transition band flips
135
Release Thesis
V5 should be the first release that upgrades the science beyond exposure alone: augmentation heterogeneity, empirical mobility, richer uncertainty, and a clearer realized-risk forecast.
effective_coverage = Σ_t w_it · exposure_t · success_t
automation_pressure = Σ_t w_it · exposure_t · success_t · autonomy_t · (1 - bottleneck_t)
augmentation_upside = Σ_t w_it · exposure_t · success_t · (1 - autonomy_t) · bottleneck_t
realized_risk_proxy = structural_risk_i · adoption_t · capability_t · κ_short
Workstreams
Augmentation heterogeneity
Replace one universal augmentation rule with workflow-sensitive priors informed by empirical productivity studies.
Deliverables
- Role/archetype-level augmentation priors
- Updated task-to-augmentation mapping
- Validation note on which occupations move most
Research
Empirical mobility transitions
Move transition support from broad heuristic rankings toward observed occupational pathways and wage/training tradeoffs.
Deliverables
- Occupation-to-occupation transition prior
- Observed wage delta and training duration fields
- Transition ranking override when empirical evidence exists
Posterior uncertainty
Upgrade bootstrap intervals into a latent measurement model across the exposure sources and propagate uncertainty through the final score.
Deliverables
- Latent exposure posterior
- 80/95% intervals on exposure and net risk
- Separation of statistical uncertainty from provenance confidence
Realized-risk forecast
Calibrate short-run realized effects separately from structural overlap using adoption and capability evidence.
Deliverables
- Adoption and capability scalars grounded in literature
- Realized-risk proxy distinct from structural and near-term risk
- Validation family for short-run labour signals
Promotion Discipline
- Retain the V4.3 baseline snapshot and the V5 promotion-comparison artifacts so future iterations stay auditable.
- Validation families must map cleanly to the construct they are testing: structural, transition, augmentation, or realized risk.
- Future V5.x changes should promote only after they beat the retained V5 baseline on the relevant validation family.