V5 Model Note
V5 is now the live structural release. This artifact preserves the final comparison against the retained V4.3 baseline and keeps the transition-adjusted and realized-risk layers auditable.
This page now preserves the final V5 promotion comparison after the V6 rollout. The planning rationale and next-step calibration work stay on the V5 roadmap.
Status
Archived live note
published as the retained V5 promotion artifact with V4.3 comparison
Structural validation
2/2
BLS and family checks versus V4.3
Realized validation
3/4
scorable short-run checks retained in the audit trail
Task-mode blended
485
occupations with mode-aware exposure blend
Median fragility
0.1216
concentration-weighted task fragility
What Is Integrated
Structural layer
Latent posterior + task modeSource-calibrated latent exposure stays the anchor, while task-mode proxies derived from weighted O*NET tasks adjust the exposure layer where the task evidence is strong enough.
Concentration layer
Fragility + reallocationHampole-style concentration now enters as demand fragility and reallocation capacity. A few highly exposed core duties are treated differently from diffuse exposure spread across many smaller tasks.
Adaptation layer
Augmentation + hybrid mobilityHeterogeneous augmentation and hybrid mobility become a bounded adaptation buffer, creating a transition-adjusted risk view rather than directly overwriting structural risk.
Realized-risk layer
Short runThe realized-risk proxy remains conservative and separate, reflecting archetype-specific short-run caps, adoption timing, postings resistance, and offset room rather than raw structural overlap.
Governance
Promoted liveThe former live V5 release remains auditable because the retained V4.3 baseline, sidecars, and promotion-comparison artifacts are still published separately.
Validation Snapshot
Structural checks
BLS rho
live -0.1905 → experimental -0.2452
Family rho
live -0.328 → experimental -0.5192
Realized-risk checks
Vacancy trend rho
-1
Hiring-net rho
0.5
Scorable, but still only a coarse 3-cluster diagnostic
Retrenchment rho
0
Current cluster series is too flat to score honestly
Employer-pressure rho
0.4715
positive coherence across archetypes, sample 436
Postings-support rho
-0.0839
negative coherence against direct occupation-level postings support, sample 93
Profile Mix
shielded
248
occupations
leveraged
23
occupations
retooling
128
occupations
balanced
163
occupations
Largest Changes
Structural risers
- Storekeeper (0.213)
- Stock records clerk (0.2047)
- Tailor/Dressmaker (0.1099)
- Precision grinding machine setter-operator (0.108)
- Keeper/Trainer in zoological, bird and aquatic parks (0.1037)
Transition fallers
- Telemarketer (-0.1913)
- Clearing and forwarding agent (-0.1762)
- Shipping agent/Boarding officer (-0.174)
- Enumerator/Market research interviewer (-0.1571)
- Statistical clerk (-0.15)
Highest realized risk
- Bookkeeper (0.3042)
- Pawnbroker (0.2938)
- Securities clerk (0.2571)
- Office clerk (including filing and copying) (0.2552)
- Enumerator/Market research interviewer (0.2546)
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