Headline risk
1%
Very Low RiskHeating, air conditioning, and refrigeration mechanics and installers
AI displacement pressure score for United States AI Work Index, combining global AI task overlap with local wages, employment trends, and demand signals.
Why This Score
Share of job tasks that overlap with current AI capabilities
Median annual wage
Projected employment change over 10 years
Typical preparation needed for this occupation
Occupation profile
Install or repair heating, central air conditioning, HVAC, or refrigeration systems, including oil burners, hot-air furnaces, and heating stoves.
Task evidence
100% weighted task match · 4% effective coverage
Scores combine AI task overlap, human advantages, and local demand. How it works
United States Now
Median Wage
USD 59,810
Employment 2024
425.2K
Projected Change (2024–34)
8.1%
Openings (2024–34)
40.1K
Wage distribution
Demand outlook
Employment of heating, air conditioning, and refrigeration mechanics and installers is projected to grow 8 percent from 2024 to 2034, much faster than the average for all occupations.
Role Profile
Tasks
- 1. Comply with all applicable standards, policies, or procedures, such as safety procedures or the maintenance of a clean work area. AI use: 0%
- 2. Study blueprints, design specifications, or manufacturers' recommendations to ascertain the configuration of heating or cooling equipment components and to ensure the proper installation of components. AI use: 87%
- 3. Test electrical circuits or components for continuity, using electrical test equipment. AI use: 0%
- 4. Discuss heating or cooling system malfunctions with users to isolate problems or to verify that repairs corrected malfunctions. AI use: 0%
- 5. Perform mechanical overhauls and refrigerant reclaiming. AI use: 0%
- 6. Install expansion and control valves, using acetylene torches and wrenches. AI use: 0%
Technologies
Requirements
Work context
Worker profile
Median age 39.9 · 561K employed
Under 25: 12% · 25–54: 69% · 55+: 19%
Related
No direct US role match is available yet for this occupation.
Source coverage
11/11 source families · O*NET 30.2 / OEWS 2024 / ORS 2025 / OOH 2025-08-28 / Projections 2024-34 / CPS 2025 / Anthropic task penetration
Data quality
Employment data available
Narrative & sources
Heating, air conditioning, and refrigeration mechanics and installers work on heating, ventilation, cooling, and refrigeration systems.
These workers install and repair systems in homes, schools, hospitals, and other buildings. They may need to work in cramped spaces, outdoors, or in extreme temperatures. Most work full time, and schedules may vary.
Heating, air conditioning, and refrigeration mechanics and installers typically need a postsecondary nondegree award, although some enter the occupation with less education. Once hired, they typically have a lengthy period of on-the-job training to attain competency. These workers may need a license or certification.
The median annual wage for heating, air conditioning, and refrigeration mechanics and installers was $59,810 in May 2024.
Employment of heating, air conditioning, and refrigeration mechanics and installers is projected to grow 8 percent from 2024 to 2034, much faster than the average for all occupations.
Important context
This score measures structural AI displacement pressure, not actual job losses. Local wages and demand data are specific to United States AI Work Index; the underlying AI task overlap analysis is consistent across all countries.